Happiness Moderated (Pan Cogito Tries To Connect The Dots On A Late November Afternoon)

[Click on image for enlargement.]

Dates P&I EU&H C&H SO&I CFNAI CFNAI-MA3

2006:06 0.10 -0.05 0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.04
2006:07 -0.03 -0.10 0.06 -0.06 -0.13 -0.08
2006:08 0.04 -0.08 -0.03 -0.01 -0.08 -0.05
2006:09 -0.19 0.02 0.03 -0.13 -0.28 -0.16
2006:10 -0.19 -0.06 0.01 -0.09 -0.34 -0.23
2006:11 -0.19 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 -0.24 -0.29
2006:12 0.38 0.19 0.04 0.17 0.79 0.07
2007:01 -0.42 -0.16 -0.06 -0.32 -0.95 -0.13
2007:02 0.22 -0.20 -0.07 -0.04 -0.07 -0.08
2007:03 -0.08 0.08 -0.04 0.04 0.02 -0.33
2007:04 0.07 -0.53 -0.07 0.02 -0.50 -0.18
2007:05 -0.08 0.19 -0.04 -0.01 0.07 -0.14
2007:06 0.01 -0.16 -0.10 -0.11 -0.35 -0.26
2007:07 0.09 -0.24 -0.08 0.12 -0.11 -0.13
2007:08 -0.19 -0.38 -0.09 -0.13 -0.77 -0.41
2007:09 0.09 -0.04 -0.14 -0.10 -0.17 -0.35
2007:10 -0.39 -0.22 -0.13 0.02 -0.70 -0.55
2007:11 0.08 0.08 -0.13 -0.06 -0.04 -0.30
2007:12 0.00 -0.18 -0.26 -0.13 -0.57 -0.44
2008:01 -0.15 -0.25 -0.22 0.02 -0.60 -0.40
2008:02 -0.31 -0.37 -0.24 -0.36 -1.29 -0.82
2008:03 -0.29 -0.51 -0.23 -0.05 -1.09 -0.99
2008:04 -0.49 -0.37 -0.23 0.09 -1.00 -1.12
2008:05 -0.21 -0.55 -0.27 -0.24 -1.27 -1.12
2008:06 -0.28 -0.41 -0.24 -0.01 -0.94 -1.07
2008:07 -0.22 -0.51 -0.35 -0.20 -1.28 -1.16
2008:08 -0.65 -0.59 -0.32 -0.45 -2.01 -1.41
2008:09 -1.77 -0.70 -0.41 -0.56 -3.44 -2.24
2008:10 0.07 -0.77 -0.46 -0.31 -1.48 -2.31
2008:11 -0.95 -1.05 -0.44 -0.53 -2.99 -2.63
2008:12 -1.40 -1.41 -0.61 -0.33 -3.77 -2.74
2009:01 -1.50 -1.46 -0.52 -0.64 -4.13 -3.63
2009:02 -0.52 -1.31 -0.52 -0.13 -2.47 -3.46
2009:03 -0.98 -1.39 -0.60 -0.39 -3.36 -3.32
2009:04 -0.41 -0.84 -0.62 -0.28 -2.15 -2.66
2009:05 -0.63 -0.97 -0.52 -0.30 -2.42 -2.64
2009:06 -0.35 -0.74 -0.49 -0.22 -1.81 -2.13
2009:07 0.40 -0.36 -0.48 0.09 -0.37 -1.53
2009:08 0.53 -0.53 -0.38 -0.25 -0.63 -0.94
2009:09 0.23 -0.60 -0.61 -0.04 -1.01 -0.67
2009:10 -0.07 -0.46 -0.52 -0.02 -1.08 -0.91

"The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released data showing that its National Activity Index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.91 in October from -0.67 in September, declining for the first time in 2009.

According to the Chicago Fed, a move below -0.70 in the three month moving average following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood a recession has begun."

Source:

Image credit: Brice Marden Cold Mountain Painting, 1989-91. (c) Brice Marden 2009. Copyright controlled. All rights reserved.

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Hanshan 寒山 "Cold Mountain"